MBA6125 Currency Valuation Analysis On Canadian Dollar Assessment Task 1 Answer
The report provides the complete currency valuation analysis on Canadian dollar which is most peer currency as compare to Australian dollar. The report provides details of financial and money market components and instruments that impacted the value of currency along with the current scenario and impact of COVID-19 on Canada economy. The report also described the comparison of Canadian dollar and Australian dollar and impact on their valuation due to change in economy. The details contain the major factors that are the reasons of decline in the value of Canadian dollar as compare to Australian dollar. There are details of current market condition of Canadian dollar in the global financial crises in response of stock market, and financial institutions. The report contains the details of key measure taken by Canadian government and the Central Bank of Canada for improving the economy of the country and the long-term economic and financial impacts of the measures taken. The capital investment plans for hedging strategy for MNCs operating into Australia and Canada. The report is an effective analysis of economy of Canada and its impact on market value of Canadian dollar due to COVID-19 and decision taken at international level for commodity pricing.
Individual Foreign Currency Valuation Analysis:
1. Financial and money market components and instruments of the currency:
The currency has chosen in the context of foreign currency assessment is the Canadian Dollar having currency code CAD and is largely considered one of the world's more stable currency. The currency is traded by the long-term investors and in the CME Global future market as well as the forex market along with currency pairing. The International Monetary Fund defines the Canadian dollar as the fifth most commonly held currency and has a cumulative market share valued approx US$ 119 billion. The Canadian dollar is also known as floating currency as it derives value from the open market. The value of Canadian dollars has fluctuated from 5 % - 10 % in a single trading session. The major financial and money market components and instruments of the Canadian dollar are as follows:
The Central Bank of Canada has the power to raise or lower interest rates that may affect the value of the Canadian dollar in the foreign currency market. The Central Bank of Canada applies the policy of intervention to control and limit the huge volatility facing the Canadian dollar. The core objective of intervention policy and change the interest rate is to create demand in the foreign exchange market. The increase in interest rate offers lenders an effective return as compare to other countries that attract foreign capital and it increases the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar.
The major component of the Canadian currency is commodity prices. As per the release of periodic economic statistics, the change in commodity price also affects the change of the Canadian dollar's exchange rate. Canada is the major exporter of crude oil and exports represent 45% of Canada's GDP.
The government of Canada has introduced the money market in 1954 with the introduction of day-to-day bank loan against treasury bills and other short-term government bonds and guaranteed securities. The period of Treasury bills is 91 days and 182 days with the maturity are issued weekly with occasional issue of long term maturity of up to one year.
Short-term paper outstanding:
Corporate short-term paper outstanding is referred to as instruments issued with the original term of one year or less. Short-term papers are issued by consumer loan and sales finance companies and by the federal government business enterprises. In the year 2020, approx $ 60000 million commercial papers are outstanding in the Canadian money market.
2. Analysis of Canadian dollar market value based on current global events and trends of the financial environment:
The year 2020 starts with surprises as COVID-19 is an unprecedented shock for the Canadian economy. As the COVID-19 brings the severe health threat and the activities related economy has been cut down and that affects the market conditions negatively. The Canadian economy is suffering from the combination of the global COVID-19 pandemic and a severe decline in oil export cause of the recession and a decline in the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar.
The decline in the economy is affecting the currency of Canada which is unable to forecast by the analyst. Many activities and businesses are put on hold or shut down temporarily and some businesses cannot reopen. The factors and current market conditions affect the market value of the Canadian dollar as follows:
The decline in interest rate:
As the interest rate is directly related to the market value of the currency as the high-interest rate attracts foreign investment that helps increase the market value of the currency. As in the current scenario when there is a global financial crisis, the world is struggling with health and economic effects. Due to this, there is an increase in debts and a decrease in the interest rate on investments, which results in a decrease in the market value of the Canadian dollar in the year 2020.
The above graph shows that the gross public debt increase continually and interest rate decline that affects the value of the currency as the country facing the global financial crises over the years.
The decline in commodity prices:
The growth of Canadian currency slow-down in late 2019, as the country earning a very modest 0.3 percent annualized gain in the final three months of last year. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the weal global economy decreases the oil demand and also decrease prices of crude oil. The export and trade flow with China and other countries and knock-on effects through global supply chains impact the market value of currency during the year 2020.
The above chart shows the highly volatile price of crude oil which also impact the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar as the export of crude oil decrease in other countries that reduce the inflow of foreign exchange.
The decrease in GDP:
The impact of COVID-19 reduces the investment in different industries and also reduces the domestic business, import, and export which reduces the revenue of Canada. The impact of the decline in the economy and coronavirus pandemic the GDP decreases in the year 2020 as compared to the year 2019. The annual growth rate of GDP has also reduced since the start of 2009 at the height of the global financial crises. Every single component of the economy affects the GDP of the country and the GDP affects the exchange rate of the currency. The government ran a deficit of CAD$ 120.4 billion during the first three months of the year 2020-2021 as compared to a deficit of CAD$ 85 billion for the same period in the fiscal year 2019-2020.
The above graph shows the annual growth rate of GDP in the last 10 years that shows the slow growth rate in GDP since 2017 which impacts the market value of the Canadian dollar over the period.
Impact of inflation rate:
The inflation rate plays a major role in the market value of the currency as the most likely impact of inflation is negative is more on currency market value as the negative inflation rate decrease in value of products at the international level and increases the value of products in the country. Due to this the market value and the exchange rate of the Canadian current are decreased as the inflation averaging is 0.5% and as per the bank quarterly survey, the inflation rate in the next two years will be below 2 %.
Current trends in the overall financial environment:
The current trends in the overall financial environment related to the operational, financing, and investment impacts are very critical as the following trends are noticed in the financial environment of Canada Economy:
- In the current scenario, the interest rate of home loans is climbing due to limited growth in real estate holdings. The housing price increase and decrease in the ownership rate in Canada due to a decrease in investment in housing projects. The increase in the interest rate increases the burden on the people of Canada approx. $ 1000 more in 2019 as debt obligations. The saving before that is expected to grow by $ 2300 per household while due to an increase in the housing interest rate the saving is expected to grow by $ 1300.
- The interest rate and yield on bonds and equity reduce in the current scenario due to a decrease in profits and earnings of companies and a decrease in investments.
- The coronavirus pandemic results in the closing of many businesses and companies that impact the income and productivity of the country.
- The fiscal deficit increase due to a decrease in revenue income of the government as a decrease in tax income during the year.
3. Canadian dollar is performing better or worse than the Australian dollar in terms of current global market conditions and future economic prospects:
The Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar are considered commodity currencies and are also a relatively stable currency pair. The performance of the CAD dollar is worse than the Australian dollar in the current market conditions. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic is the most reason for the worst performance of the Canadian dollar against the Australian dollar. The main reason for the worst performance is the global economic recession in the Canadian economy.
The above graph shows the change in the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar against the Australian dollar during the last 11 months after the coronavirus pandemic found in China that impact the global economic crises and restriction on import and exports between countries.
The main reasons for the worst performance of the Canadian dollar against the Australian dollar are as follows:
The loonie dips fall due to the coronavirus pandemic, as the value of the country's economy struggles and oil price plunge.
The Australian dollar, one of the few currencies which is gaining strength as the coronavirus spreads around the globe. The Canadian dollar already at a four-year low price and during the current scenario also reduces the value of the Canadian dollar as compared to the Australian dollar.
A few times before the oil prices of North American were above $ 50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate while in the current scenario the price of the same barrel is changed and fall to $ 27 each, the current situation directly hit on the price of the Canadian dollar as compared to the Australian dollar and other country's currency.
The investors and borrowers are in rush due to the uncertainty around the globe as there is financial, economic, health and other issues arise due to COVID-19, the rate of interest increase on debts, and return decrease on investments. The amount of available greenbacks internationally has tightened recently which is increasing the value of the Australian dollar and reduces the market value of the Canadian dollar.
The bank of Canada has reduced the interest rate up to a half-point rate which results in a reduction of investment from a foreign country. The decrease in foreign investments results in a decrease in foreign exchange and the value of the currency is reduced. In this scenario, the investment in Canada gets reduce which impacts the value of currency negatively as compared to the Australian dollar.
The strategies made by the government of Australia are made in such ways as the country fits the needs of one of the fastest-growing regions in the world. Australia has a strong position in Asian ties and demand for Australian resources all are in favor of the Australian dollar and also helps to sustain the rise of the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar.
In the current volatile market situation all over the world, the US and particularly Europe have helped make Australia's currency appear to a safer alternative for the investors. With the strong exchange rate of Australian currency, stable and comparative market, and the expectation of demand from Asia will continue and the speculative investment grows in Australia that increases the value of the currency as compared to the Canadian dollar.
The economy of Australia is healthy as compare to other countries as there is low government debt, steady unemployment levels, and Triple-A credit status. Some of the analysts suggest that the market value of the Australian dollar can reach to $ 1.50 against the greenback and parity with the Euro. As the country has a strong economy and there is a forecast of effective demand and export of products helps in an increase in the value of the Australian dollar.
4. Current market conditions for the Canadian dollar are similar or different from the GFC:
Introduction of global financial crises:
The financial crises refer to a deep decline in values of the economy that results in a decrease in value of assets, businesses and consumers are unable to pay their debts and financial institutions experience a shortage of liquidity. The financial crises arise when there is a rush in investors as they sell their investments and assets, withdraw the amount from their savings accounts, and fear that the value of assets will drop if it remains with the financial institution. The financial crises arise due to the bursting of a speculative financial bubble, a stock market crash, sovereign default, or currency crises. The most damaging financial crisis event is the global financial crisis as the financial crises that arise all over the world.
In the current scenario, there are global financial crises as the spread of COVID-19 affects the economy of over the world. There is the loss of a job, closing of businesses, struggle for reopening the businesses, major impact on the health of people, increase in the death ratio over the world, closing of the world economy due to lockdown, impact on traveling and transportation, the impact of imports and exports and withdraw of investments by people cause of high financial crises and the government of countries are taking major decisions for recovering from the situation.
Current market conditions for the Canadian dollar:
The current market conditions for the Canadian dollar are similar to the global financial crises. The Canadian economy suffering from losses due to a decrease in exports, an increase in government debts, withdrawal of investment by investors due to a reduction in returns, an increase in the percentage of unemployed people. The major impact of global financial crises on market conditions for the Canadian dollar is differentiated into two parts:"
1. Stock Market:
The market value of the Canadian dollar reduced in the current scenario those results in a decrease in investment in the Canadian market. Investors have doubts about recovery in such an uncertain environment. The ongoing crises came with a steep spike in currency risks which may limit potential return and diversification benefits for Canadian Investors. The US dollar is appreciated by about 10.5% against the Canadian dollar so far this year. A sudden plunge of the CAD against the United States dollar increases currency risk to the Canadian investors looking to buy American stock. The financial crises measured in Canadian dollar in terms of response of stock markets are as follows:
- The value of investment reduces specific the oil industry prices as the cost of crude oil barrel is reduced in the international market.
- The investor’s trust reduced in the stock market as they are facing huge losses during the last 6 months.
- The financial crises refers to the reduction in the securities value and market cap of the companies as the companies are facing losses and lockdown increase the cause of loss of revenue income that impact the market value of companies.
- The stock market is play vital role for hedging and protection of losses of exchange of foreign currency, however due to financial crises the hedging process is not successful and the investors bear the high losses.
- The currency are traded in the stock market and the investors invest in the index for getting profits, while the financial crises impact the value of index of Canadian dollar which impact the investment value of investors.
2. Financial institution:
The interest rate is reduced by the bank of Canada which reduces the value of the Canadian dollar. The reduction of returns to the investor and helps by Europe to Australia for alternative investment options increase the risk for financial institutions in Canada as the investor withdraws their investors more frequently which results in a shortage of liquidity in the financial institution of Canada. The financial institutions are facing financial crises as the domestic as well as international investors withdraw their amount of investment and there are high debts due to non-payment of the amount by the borrowers. The financial crises measured in Canadian dollar in terms of response of financial institutions are as follows:
- The financial institutions play vital role in the economy of country, in the present scenario the financial institutions are facing the financial crises in terms of debts, foreign exchange and interest rate.
- The bank of Canada has reduced the interest rate during the last 6 months and the exchange rate of Canadian currency is reduced from 2016 which is impact in the current scenario highly.
- The financial institutions are facing the problem of attracting foreign investors and also face the issue of withdrawal of investment due to reduction in return on investment and better option available to investors such as Australian economy.
- The financial crises in financial institution affect the value of Canadian dollar negatively as increase in the interest rate, increase in the government debts, increase in the loss of exchange rate, etc.
5. The key measures are taken by the central banks and governments to stabilize the currency right and country performing better:
The currency fluctuations are the cause of the economic instability in the country the responsibility of the currency stability is on the central bank of the country. Some various methods and measures are adopted by the central bank to control the currency fluctuations. Before understanding the key measures that are used by the central bank the reasons for the currency instability are also required to be understood. The main reasons for the instability of the currency are as below:
1. Any unforeseeable situation –
Market conditions and the instability of the markets and the environment can affect the valuation of currency and create instability of the currency. Thus the situations that are not predictable are the main reason for the fluctuations in the currency valuation and the prices of the currency (Jiang, et al. 2017).
2. Import / Export –
The amount of import of export also makes an effect on the prices and valuation of the currency thus the import-export data can make currency unstable. IF the imports are more than the value of the exports than there is excessive supply of the currency of the nations and it will lead to Decrease the value of the currency in the market and if the exports are more than the imports in the value than the demand of the currency is increased in the market it will lead to increase the value of the currency in the market. By controlling the imports and the exports the value of the currency is also controlled and managed.
3. Availability of Money in the market –
The valuation of currency is a market-driven value thus the value of inventory is based on the demand and supply of the currency. If there is excessive supply in the market it causes a decrease in the value of the currency and if demand is on a higher side then the value of the currency is increased. When there is increase in the money in the market the currency requirements has been increased it will create a hike in the price of the currency and on the other side when there are less money available in the market than the requirement of the currency is less in the market and it will decrease the value of the currency in the market (Das, Kannadhasan, & Bhattacharyya, 2019).
Measures to control the fluctuations of the currency:
Based on the above issues, there are fluctuations in the value of the currency apart from this currently the world has been suffering from the COVID pandemic in this situation the currency prices are very volatile. In the current situation, the central banks can adopt the following measures to control the fluctuations of the currency in the country-
1. Printing more money – In the current time the economic output and the economic activities are down and there is no inflation in current time thus to increase the inflation and to boost the economic activities in the country the government can print more money to establish economic and currency. Normally printing more money will impact the economic condition of the country very bad thus normally the central banks avoids this measures of the printing more currency.
2. Control the reserves- there are several reserves that the commercial banks are required to be maintained at central banks and in liquid assets by controlling the requirements of the reserves and ratios to be maintained by controlling these the central bank can control the demand and supply of the currency and thus it can control the currency instability (Gulzar, et al. 2019).
3. Open market operations by central banks – The central bank, by using several market operations can control the liquidity in the market and also by doing the open market activities central bank can control the supply and demand of the currency in the market some of the mainly used open market activities by the central bank is purchasing of bonds from the market and sell off the bonds in the market and the other open market activates are changing the interest rates in the market to control the demand and the supply of the currency in the market. By purchasing the currency from the market the central banks create demand from the market it will help to keep safe the prices from falling and if the prices are going higher then the central bank can increase the supply in the market.
Country performing better in the current situation:
The Australian government performed very well as compare to Canada the major issues that have been faced by Australia is the unemployment and lack of job creation that will lead to the reduction in the economic activities of the country this problem is solved by the Australian government. The country is performing better in the current situation due to the actions taken by the government as the expectation of an increase in the GDP is more than 6% in the next 5 years. The liquidity issues get a decrease in financial institutes and there are effective reserves maintained by banks that create trust of customers and investors.
6. Long-term economic impacts of the measures taken by the governments and central banks of the Canadian government-
The COVID 19 pandemic has made a serious health threat to all the people around the world. It has made a significant disruption to global and Canadian economies. Sectors like energy, travel, service, and hospitality industries have been affected to a major extend.
Authorities have taken bold and necessary measures to support the people of the country. Various measures have been taken by banks and governments of Canada to lessen the impact of the coronavirus on the currency. The bank of Canada is acting in several ways to support the economy and the financial system during this difficult time (Gulzar, et al. 2019).
In normal times, the objective of inflation can be achieved by setting the policy interest rate at the appropriate level. The central bank of Canada has lowered interest rates to one-fourth percent to help the financial activities. A range of liquidity facilities and purchase programs have also been launched. They have also increased the liquidity in core funding markets.
Programs launched to stabilize the currency:
Various programs have been launched to stabilize the currency taken by the governments and central banks of the Canadian government are as follows-
- Bankers acceptance purchase facility (BAPF)
- Government of Canada bond purchase program (GBPP)
- Canada mortgage bond purchase program (CMBP)
- Provincial bond purchase program (PBPP)
- Provincial money market purchase program (PMMP)
- Commercial paper purchase program (CPPP)
- Corporate bond purchase program (CBPP)
Long-term economic and financial impacts of the above programs and initiatives-
- Risk mitigation- These programs have been made so that financial risk to the taxpayers could be managed. All the above-written plans mitigate risk by including minimum credit ratings, concentration limits, the term for maturity limit, and the limit for the counterparty.
With the assistance of the Bank of Canada, the banks have closely collaborated with the central government, to obtain agreements of indemnity on major purchase schemes. The government is providing indemnity against losses by providing additional assurance to banks that the use of these programs will be tied to the control objective of the bank's inflation.
The Bank inflation rate will have a direct impact on the currency and the stabilization would be easy.
- Expansion of balance sheet- These interventions increases the size of the balance sheet of banks. The expansion will help the banks in getting the financial system working properly. A well-functioning system would help the currency rate to stabilize (Khandaker, & Al Farooque,).
- Reporting- To stabilize the currency, various programs have been launched. Results of large scale purchase of asset programs are being properly managed. The reports are sent to banks regularly. Weekly and monthly report of total assets purchased through these programs is deposited. The result of this has lead to the fair purchase of assets.
Other long term impacts are as follows-
- Business development- Low-interest rates and reduction in taxes have to lead to the development of the business sector. Relief for certain mining companies has been provided by the department of finance.
- Tax reduction- Canada has announced new financial and tax measures in response to Covid-19. Flexibility in the filling of income tax has been provided to the businesses. The deadline for corporate tax payments and the return has been extended. Employer health tax payment has also been deferred.
- Development of economy- schemes initiated by the banks have to lead to the development of the economy by 0.2%. From 1.5% growth in 2019 to 1.7% growth in 2020 has been calculated. Particularly in the residential market, growth can be seen. GDP has also been expected to rise next year. Cut in the interest rate at the time of corona, was one of the most influential decisions made by the bank of Canada (uzarraga-Goitia, Regúlez-Castillo, & Rodríguez-Castellanos, 2020).
- Movement of capital- Capital flow in Canada was slow in the first half of the year. Capital flow is calculated using the capital account balance of the BOP (balance of payments).
- Income distribution- income distribution has been unequal in the economy. Protests have been seen which lead to the big steps has taken by the government in their support. The average income/salary of an individual in 2020 in Canada range from 22,800 to 747,000, which is higher than the average range of income in 2019.
- Inflation- inflation averaging 0.5% in 2020 can be seen. By 2021, the inflation rate has been forecasted to be 1.6%. Comparing the previous year's inflation rates and the expected rate, 2020 inflation has been better. There was a 0.4% expected to increase, but an additional 0.1 percent can be seen in July and August.
Although, the bank's quarterly survey has suggested that inflation for the next two years will be below 2 percent.
- Employment protection- 10% subsidy has been provided to the eligible employees from March 18 to June 19. An eligible employer is an employee working in Canada. Long term income support to workers has been provided under the CERB Canada emergency response benefit. Other than this wage subsidy is also been provided to them under Canada's emergency wage subsidy (CEWS).
- Industrial development- Four main industries of Canada are agriculture, mining, technology, and the service industry. Due to corona, the service industry of Canada has been affected the most. Support of government and banks to have led to saving these industries from losses (Corbet, Gurdgiev, & Meegan,2018).
Impacts due to steps taken by the government of Australia:
Impacts that can be seen due to the steps taken by the government of Australia to handle the current currency situation of the country-
- Economic prosperity- programs and schemes adopted by the banks and the government of Australia have to lead to the economic prosperity of the country. Good fortune regarding wealth can be seen.
- Support to the tourism industry- Deferral of levy payments of the tourism industry has been given (Ulussever, & Demirer, 2017).
- Financial stability in the economy- Measures adopted by the government has to lead to financial stability in the firm.
- The living standard of people- new reforms have to lead to the development of the living standards of people.
- Reduction in the difficulties in the oil sector
- Global certainty
- Raise in the federal minimum wage decisions
- Stabilized markets
- Increased old age pensions
- Reduction in trade tensions
7. Capital investment plan:
Hedging is a management strategy to minimize the risks involved in the valuation of the financial statements of a firm. To minimize the risk of adverse movements in the valuation of assets and liabilities, a set of measures is taken, it is called hedging strategy (Smyth, & Narayan,2018).
Capital investment plan for MNCs of Canada including a hedging strategy –
MNCs hedge against foreign exchange risk by shifting balances to the currencies that they will need in the future from a country (Majid, 2018).
From the operations performed in the domestic and overseas markets, MNCs draw considerable revenues in return for the investment made. These companies export to foreign companies to get good revenues and to minimize risk as well. In MNCs, decisions are made based on policies. The capital investment plan is a long term strategy of the company in a particular company or a particular sector. The MNC companies that are operating in different countries are required to manage their foreign currency exposures following measures are adopted by the MNC for their capital investment plan (Majdoub, & Sassi, 2017).
1. The estimation of the investment amount on the yearly basis is calculated based on the experience in the currency that is required at the time of the investments.
2. The revenues from the investments are also estimated from the investment of the MNC and it is deducted from the outflow of the foreign currency and calculates the net amount of currency outflow.
3. The foreign currency exposure is required to be hedged to protect the MNC's from the exposures of the currency fluctuations the currency exposures can be hedged with various options like forwarding contracts, futures contracts, currency options, etc. The company can hedger currency exposures with the help of forwarding contracts (Prasad, Grant, & Kim, 2018).
4. Company can directly enter into contracts with the other related companies to provide the payments in the foreign currency that are required for the capital investment plans.
5. MNC's are required to maintain a corporate treasury department that can hedge the currency risks according to the demand and supply of the current flow to the organization.
These strategies can help the MNC’s to hedge their exposures to foreign currency risks.
8. Conclusion and suggestions:
In the pandemic time, it is very difficult for the central banks to maintain the economy in good conditions. Various issues arise in the pandemic situation for example slow growth in economic production, negative growth rate, unemployment, and other economic crises. Thus to prevent these types of situations in the future there are required to be some strong regulatory measures taken by the central banks of both the countries. The governments also need to take some major steps to provide an economic boost the economy (Liow, 2016). The economy of Canada is improved slowly due to the measures taken by the Canadian government, however it is difficult to recover as an effective economy due to world-wide crises of COVID-19 and health issues. Following are the key measures and regulations that are required to be implemented by the government for the economic welfare (Li,, Li, Yuan, & Yu, 2020).
1. Preparation of labor data and registration of all skilled and unskilled manpower with the government so that in the time of pandemic or any of the unforeseeable situations the government had the data for the better deployment of the labor. The increase in the employment brings sustainability in economy as the living standards improve that leads to the improvement in GDP (Mensi, 2019).
2. The government should start some pension programs and the saving programs for the peoples of the countries so that in the case of a pandemic the funds collected in the normal times are helpful for the people and in these times the collected funds can be used by the persons that are unemployed during the pandemic.
3. Minimum income guarantees schemes – For the creation of a certain income of the unemployed person and to increase the demand for the product in the economy and increase the economic activities of the country. This income will increase the purchasing power of the country and the lower income group of the country; it will lead to an increase in the demand in the country that will ultimately push the economic activities of the country (Wang, Tsai, & Lu, 2019).
4. Government should make policies and provide benefits on foreign investments and attract the investor that helps in improvement in the economy and increase in the demand in the market that increase liquidity in the country.
Above are some of the regulatory suggestion to the government that are adopted by the government of both the countries to reduce the risk of the economy falling short and the long run, apart from these various measures can be adopted by both the countries for the economic uplift of the countries, for example, increase the liquidity in the market and keep reserves for these types of situation (Moşteanu, Faccia, & Cavaliere, 2020).
Both the government of the countries Australia and Canada doing very good work in the pandemic situation but there is still some scope for improvements thus the situation can be handled very well in the future if this type of situation has arisen in the market.